recovery factors of Shale…,,,

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EIA 같은 공식 기관에서 회수율 같은 것을 발표해 주지는 않는 듯….

EIA에서도 물론 추정치를 사용하겠지만 그래도 공식기관에서 발표하는 것들과 나머지 기업체들에서 뻥이 들어갈 수 있는 숫자랑은 개념이 다를 수도 있으니..





One more fact that I’ll remind you of, just to blow your mind a little bit more. Six or eight years ago we were estimating a recovery factor of just 3.5% in the Bakken shale reservoirs from our horizontal wells. With additional work, micro-seismic study, well production history, big data analytics, etc., we’re now estimating that we’re recovering 15-18% of the oil in place. We further estimate, with our current technology, that the technically recoverable oil in the Bakken is 65 to 90 billion barrels.

Let’s pick the midpoint at 78 billion barrels of recoverable oil and assume a recovery factor of 16.5%. That implies we have about 470 billion barrels in place, of which 78 billion barrels can be recovered. Now let’s assume that over the next decade that the drilling and extraction technologies continue to improve and we are able to harvest another 5% of the oil in place — again, we now know exactly where it is and we know the exact profile of the geology/geophysics of the shale rock. That’s another almost 24 billion barrels of crude oil (470 billion x .05), which would be equivalent to discovering another Prudhoe Bay size oil field in the Bakken area! All it takes is more experience and technology gain to get the oil we know is there.



Forbes 2015.07.02


2014.11.03 – New well-productivity data provide US shale potential insights





에너지경제연구원 2014.11.08$file/WEMI1440.pdf


현재 Bakken과 Eagle Ford 셰일지대의 석유 회수율은 3 ~ 8%인데, 회수울이 소폭이라도 개선될 경우 이는 생산 확대로 이어질 수 있음. 현재 시험 중인 원유 회수증진 기술은 회수율을 2배 향상 시킬 수 있는 것으로 알려짐.





Written by MayBeMayBe

January 17, 2016 at 11:00

Posted in Writing

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